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  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2017/07

  • Source:China ·Yiwu Commodity Index Author:China ·Yiwu Commodity Index 2017-08-04
  • The Overall Market is Dominated by Periodic Consolidation, and the Monthly Prosperity Index is Entering the Process of Bottoming Out

        According to the monitor of “China·Yiwu Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of July 2017 amounted to 1110.23 points, decreasing by 0.43% month on month and 0.16% year on year respectively. While the monthly price index of July 2017 amounted to 99.95 points, decreasing by 0.04% month on month and 0.06% year on year respectively. Recently, the overall market has entered the mid-year adjustment phase. On the one hand, as Ramadan is over, the purchasing demands of foreign customers have been slightly rising. With purchasers from the Middle East and Africa successively returning to Yiwu, the overall export trades of Yiwu market have been rapidly recovering. On the other hand, the procurements for summer products, which are mainly supported by replenishment orders and a small amount of wholesales and retails, have been gradually slowing down. Since March to July of 2017, the monthly prosperity index has been hovering around 1100 points, with the rising range increased and falling range decreased, which shows it is entering a bottoming process.

    I. Introduction of the Economic Indicators
    i. Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index
     

       

        The monthly prosperity index of July 2017 amounted to 1110.23 points, down 4.83 points month on month, with a falling range of 0.43%, and down 1.76 points year on year, with a falling range of 0.16%.. The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices:

    1. Scale Index
        The scale index of July 2017 counted up to 839.8 points, down 2.34 points month on month, with a falling range of 0.28%, and down 15.25 points year on year, with a falling range of 1.78%. Among that, the trade turnover index, the trade volume index and the variety expansion degree index were all decreased, with a falling range of 0.34%, 0.32% and 0.25% respectively. While the market popularity index was increased slightly, with an increasing range of 0.08%.

        Among the scale indices of 15 major categories, 8 of them have gone up, such as Arts & Crafts, Accessories & Packaging, Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Sports & Entertainment Products, Timepieces & Eyewear, Knitting & Weaving Products, Hardware & Electrical Materials and Suitcases & Bags. The scale index of Accessories & Packaging has stayed in the forefront, with a rising range of 6.62% on a month-on-month basis. While the scale indices of Daily Necessities, Apparel & Accessories, Toys, Skin Care & Beauty Products, Shoes, Jewelry and Stationery & Office Supplies have fallen in this month.

    2. Benefit Index
        The benefit index of July 2017 counted up to 1579.2 points, down 3.84 points month on month, with a falling range of 0.24%, and up 32.75 points year on year, with a rising range of 2.12%. In this month, the fund’s turnover rate index and the gross profit ratio index were both increased, with a rising range of 8.72% and 0.75% respectively. While the commodity’s turnover rate index and the average gross profit index were both decreased, with a falling range of 3.86% and 2.15% respectively.

        Among the benefit indices of 15 major categories, 6 of them have gone up, such as Accessories & Packaging, Apparel & Accessories, Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Arts & Crafts, Toys and Daily Necessities. While the benefit indices of Skin Care & Beauty Products, Jewelry, Timepieces & Eyewear, Stationery & Office Supplies, Shoes, Sports & Entertainment Products, Knitting & Weaving Products, Hardware & Electrical Materials and Suitcases & Bag have fallen in this month. Amongst, the benefit index of Skin Care & Beauty Products has dropped by 40.08% in July from a high point in June.

    3. Confidence Index
        The confidence index of July 2017 amounted to 1001.85 points, with a falling range of 0.9% month on month and 1.79% year on year.


       

        Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, 5 of them have gone up. The monthly prosperity indices of Accessories & Packaging, Electronics & Electrical Appliances and Arts & Crafts have stayed in forefront, with a rising range of 9.76%, 1.9% and 2.44% respectively. The monthly prosperity indices of Apparel & Accessories and Toys have kept on rising from June. And the monthly prosperity indices of Accessories & Packaging, Electronics & Electrical Appliances and Arts & Crafts have bottomed rebound. Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, the other 10 of them have fallen. The monthly prosperity indices of Personal Care Products, Timepieces & Eyewear and Jewelry have stayed in forefront, with a falling range of 20.22%, 6.47% and 6.45% respectively. The monthly prosperity indices of Personal Care Products, Jewelry Shoes and Hardware & Electrical Materials have firstly increased then decreased in this month, while the monthly prosperity indicies of Timepieces & Eyewear, Stationery & Office Supplies, Knitting & Weaving Products, Daily Necessities and Suitcases & Bags have kept falling in this month.

    ii. Analysis for the Composition of the Monthly Price Index
        The monthly price index of July 2017 amounted to 99.95 points, decreasing by 0.04% month on month and 0.06% year on year. Among that, the direct transaction price index was rising, increasing by 0.05% month on month, while the market order price index and the export trade price index were both declined, decreasing by 0.34% and 0.3% respectively month on month. And the online exchange price index maintained the same level with last month.


       

        Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, 6 of them have gone up. The monthly price indices of Knitting & Weaving Products, Timepieces & Eyewear and Personal Care Products have stayed in the forefront, with a rising range of 1.5%, 0.78% and 0.55% respectively. Among that, the monthly price index of Timepieces & Eyewear has kept on rising. While the monthly price indices of Knitting & Weaving Products, Personal Care Products, Stationery & Office Supplies, Toys and Jewelry have stopped falling and risen slightly in this month. Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, another 9 of them have fallen. The monthly price indices of Daily Necessities, Suitcases & Bags and Accessories & Packaging have stayed in the forefront, with a falling range of 1.03%, 0.47% and 0.21% respectively. The monthly price indices of Suitcases & Bags, Accessories & Packaging, Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Sports & Entertainment Products and Shoes have kept falling in this month, while the monthly price indices of Daily Necessities, Apparel & Accessories, Hardware & Electrical Products and Arts & Crafts have firstly increased then decreased in this month.

    II. Analysis for the Influencing Factors of Prosperity Index
    i. Sales of Summer Products were Declining

        Influenced by the continuous high temperature and adequate stocking-up in previous stage, the overall sales of summer products were declining obviously recently, focusing on replenishment and retail. On the one hand, the monthly prosperity indices of industries closely related to daily life, such as, Kitchen & Sanitary Hardware, Kitchenware, Small Home Appliances and Beddings were all declined, down 170.49 points, 33.84 points, 26.31 points and 18.81 points respectively month on month. On the other hand, the monthly prosperity indices of industries related to body care and jewelry were rebounded. The monthly prosperity indices of Beauty Care Tools, Neck Jewelry and Hair Jewelry were decreased by 224.55 points, 149.28 points and 41.78 points respectively month on month.

    ii.Sales of Tourist Products were Active
        Driven by the peak tourist season of summer holiday, demand for tourist products in domestic scenic areas was vigorous. Overall sentiment in the market was increasing and the sales of tourist products were rising too. Tourist crafts such as Ethnic Crafts, Hand Jewelry, Artistic Crafts and Daily-use Crafts, the monthly prosperity indices of them were all rising, up 70.82 points, 54.02 points, 41.33 points and 23.47 points respectively month on month. Due to tourist peak season, sales of travel products were increasing, and wholesales and retails of suitcases, sneakers, umbrellas, baby seats, car refrigerators, diapers and baby kettles were both flourishing. The monthly prosperity indices of Cases, Auto Products, Rain Gear, Baby Supplies and Tourism & Sports Shoes were all rising, up 177.01 points, 94.26 points, 39.71 points, 12.86 points and 8.41 points.

    iii. Foreign Procurement has Returned to Normalcy
        With the returning of purchasers from the Middle East and Africa, the foreign trade was warming up, and foreign purchasers have paid more attention on partial industries, with increasing enquiries and orders. The monthly prosperity indices of Office Supplies & Equipments, Lighting Equipments & Products, Locks, Clock & Watch Accessories and Leather Shoes & Boots were all rising, up 174.15 points, 159.86 points, 139.41 points, 110.3 points and 43.7 points respectively month on month. Foreign procurements of Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia were rising stably and scarves, beach shorts, bras and home necessities sold well. The monthly prosperity indices of Home Textiles, Home Necessities, Underwear, Swimsuits & Swimming Accessories and Fashion Accessories were all rising, up 69.09 points, 46.62 points, 26.4 points, 13.22 points and 11.61 points respectively month on month.

    III. Analysis for the Marketing Trends
    i. Influenced by the continuous hot temperature, summer supplies have become mainstream products in current market. And the sales of Apparel & Accessories, Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Daily Necessities are set to remain stable in the future.

    ii. As the peak season of wedding ceremony and home decoration in the latter half of the year is coming, the demands for Wedding Props, Festival Decorations, Beddings, Locks, Construction & Decoration Hardware have been picking up.

    iii. With the foreign procurement peak of Christmas Supplies gradually approaching, the sales of Christmas Supplies and the overall foreign trades of Yiwu market are set to boom.

    iv. In August, the procurements for School Supplies will be fully started. And the demands for Students’ Beddings, Stationeries, Balls are set to increase.