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  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2017/12

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2018-01-09
  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2017/12
    Increasing in Amount and Decreasing in Profit with Prosperity Index Falling Slightly, the Market Enters Year-end Consolidation
     According to the monitor of “Yiwu • China Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of December 2017 amounted to 1197.57 points, decreasing by 0.41% month on month and increasing by 1.61% year on year. While the monthly price index of December 2017 amounted to 100.12 points, increasing by 0.08% and 0.21% separately month on month and year on year. With the incoming of the Christmas holiday overseas, the purchasing frequency of the foreign merchants is decreasing and the domestic sales situation is getting better, becoming the important support for the marketing operation and the overall market turnover is increasing with all the trade turnover index and the trade volume index increasing month on month. And with the initiation of the amount mode of the year-end and the operators are distributing more and more profits for the market, the gross profit index is decreasing slightly.
    I. Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index
     
    The monthly prosperity index of December 2017 amounted to 1197.57 points, down by 0.41% month on month and increasing by 1.61% year on year. The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices:  
    1. Scale index: The scale index of December 2017 counted up to 863.41 points, increased by 5.45points at a rate of 0.64% month on month and increased by 1.25% year on year. With the incoming of the consumption peak of the domestic market at the end of the year and the operators are constantly promoting new products, the variety expansion degree index was increased by 4.76 points at a rate of 0.47% month on month, and the market popularity index increased by 0.22% to 788.1 points; and the turnover, turnover index increased by 0.8% and 0.64% to 855.87 points and 852.37 points separately.
    2. Benefit index: the benefit index of December 2017 counted up to 1841.28 points, decreased slightly by 0.05% month on month and increased by 4.35 year on year. With the incoming of Christmas, the foreign purchasing for the skin care and cosmetics, electronics appliances and garments was decreasing and as the year-end promotions were getting more and more, the benefit index slightly decreased with the gross profit index decreased by 7.45% in December and the commercial transfer index and capital transfer index increased by 0.46% and 5.52% month on month separately.
    3. Confidence index: the confidence index of December 2017 amounted to 999.42 points, decreased by 22.62 points at 2.21% rate month on month and 2.69% year on year. The as the foreign trade situation fell slightly in a short period, the operators’ confidence was affected a little.
     
    Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, 6 of them have gone up. The monthly prosperity indices of toys, sports & entertainment products, stationery & office supplies have stayed in forefront, increased by 166.96 points, 128.78 points and 53.53 points. The toys, shoes, skin care and cosmetics have kept on rising from October and November and sports & entertainment products, stationery & office supplies, cases and bags have rebound in December.
    The properity indexes of the 9 major categories have decreased month on month, the top three are watches and glasses, electronic appliances, knitting and wearing, decreased by 119 points, 39.77 points and 35.85 points, of which, the accessories, packaging, daily supplies, garments, electronic appliances, watches and glasses fell after increasing; and the jewelry, arts and crafts, hardware, knitting and weaving decreased in the past two months.
       II. Analysis for the Composition of the Monthly Price Index
       The monthly price index of December 2017 amounted to 100.12 points, increasing slightly by 0.08% and 0.21% month on month. Among that, the export trade price index increased by 0.33%, direct transaction price index increased by 0.12% and market order price index decreased by 0.52% month on month. After the online exchange peak in "double 11th" and "double 12th", the online exchange price index fell back to 0.07%.
     
    Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, 9 of them have gone up. The monthly price indices of stationery & office supplies, electronic appliances and hardware have stated in the forefront, increased by 1.03 point, 0.88 point and 0.6 point month on month. Among that, the monthly price indices of electronic appliances, shoes, skin care and cosmetics, sports & entertainment supplies increased by two month; and the stationery & office supplies, hardware, cases and bags, accessories packaging have rebound; and the monthly price index of toys have increased by 0.11 point once stabilized.
    The monthly indices of 6 major categories have gone up and the watches and glasses, daily supplies, and garments have stayed in the forefront, decreased by 0.95 point, 0.51 point and 0.07 point. Among that, the monthly price indices of daily supplies, garments, arts and crafts, knitting and weaving have rebound and the watches and glasses, jewelry have decreased in two consecutive months.
       III. Analysis for the Influencing Factors of Prosperity Index
    i. Holiday stimulation on the domestic consumption
    As effected by the Christmas and "double 12th" of the month, the domestic sales situation of the market was good, of which, the toys, cases and bags, skin care and cosmetics sales increased separately by 166.96 points, 37.65 points, 23.58 points, and outdoor toys, intellectual toys, control toys, cases, bags, skin care prosperity indices increased by 237.64 points, 226.86 points, 211.01 points, 59.9 points, 37.22 points and 35.05 points. As driven by the multiple industrial peaks, the prosperity index of the accessories increased by 1.33 points.
    ii.  Hot sell of students’ and office supplies at year-end
    With the incoming of the final examination and annual consolidation of various enterprises and units, the purchasing orders of students’ and office supplies were increasing, of which, the prosperity indices of sports & entertainment supplies, stationery& office supplies increased by 128.78 points and 53.53 points in December, and stationery & equipment, writing instruments, stationery, sports and health increased separately by 57.89 points, 47.27 points, 17.47 points and 140.28 points. And meantime, sports & entertainment and stationery sales were very good with the sales of pokers, chases and red packets rising. And besides, the prosperity indices of paper products and entertainment supplies increased by 53.99 point and 15.6 point month on month.
    iii. Falling of foreign trade with along Christmas
    With the incoming of the Christmas, some foreign merchants went back to their own countries for the holiday and the foreign trade activities decreased with certain related industries influenced accordingly. Among that, the market popularity indices of the watches and glasses, garments, and jewelry decreased by 12.96 points, 2.37 points and 2.16 points and the prosperity indices decreased by 119 points, 33.48 points and 15.45 points.
       IV. Analysis for the Marketing Trends
     i.  Constant cooling and seasonal products are expected to be good
     As affected by the cold air, most regions of the countries are facing the constant cooling situation, for which, it was expected that the sales situations of the garments, shoes, knitting and weaving, accessories and packaging were getting better.
    ii. Holiday products will become the major force of the after-market
    With the incoming of the new year, the holiday products purchasing is expected to increase, especially the toys, stationery & office supplies, sports & entertainment, arts & crafts, cases & bags and daily supplies.
    iii. Certain foreign trade industries will enter consolidation period
    After the Christmas, the foreign merchants amount decreases and certain industrial may enter the annual consolidation period. And the orders for the skin care and cosmetics, jewelry, hardware and electric accessories, electronic appliances, watches and glasses are mainly for the supplement.