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  • MONTHLY PROSPERITY INDEX ANYLYSISI IN 2018/01

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2018-02-12
  •  MONTHLY PROSPERITY INDEX ANYLYSISI IN 2018/01
     
    [The year-end replenishment promoted the trading volume, and the future market will develop under good trend] 
    According to the monitor of “Yiwu • China Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of January 2018 amounted to 1189.82 points, decreasing by 0.65% month on month. While the monthly price index of January 2018 amounted to 10022 points, increasing by 0.1% month on month. With the incoming of the Christmas holiday overseas, the purchasing frequency of the foreign merchants is decreasing and the domestic sales situation is getting better, becoming the important support for the marketing operation and the overall market turnover is increasing with all the trade turnover index and the trade volume index increasing month on month. And with the initiation of the amount mode of the year-end and the operators are distributing more and more profits for the market, the gross profit index is decreasing slightly.
    I. Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index
    The monthly prosperity index of January 2018 amounted to 1189.82 points, down by 0.65% month on month:  
    1.Scale index: The scale index of January 2018 counted up to 863.24 points, decreased by 0.17 points at a rate of 0.02% month on month. Trade Volume Index,Market Popularity Index,Trade Turnover Index were increased by 0.13%,0.02%,0.001%;Variety Expansion Degree Index was decreased by 0.68%.
    2.Benefit index: the benefit index of January 2018 counted up to 1850.17 points, decreased by 1.96% month on month.Commodity”s Gross Profit Ratio Index was increased by 5.18%; Fund’s Turnover Rate Index Commodity’s Turnover Rate Index Average Gross Profit Index were decreased by 5.43%,4.61%,2.96%.
    3. Confidence index: the confidence index of January 2018 amounted to 1009.92 points, increased at 2.21% rate month on month. By improving economic environment at home and abroad, the court merchants for the next market expectations tend to be more optimistic.
    .
    Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, 8 of them have gone up. The monthly prosperity indices of Arts & Crafts, Timepieces & Eyewear, Electronics & Electrical Appliances were increased by 11.88%,4.57%,3.59%. Personal Care, Sports & Entertainment Products, Toys and Suitcases & Bags have kept on rising from December and January and Arts & Crafts, Timepieces & Eyewear, Electronics & Electrical Appliances Jewelry have rebound in January.
    The properity indexes of the 7 major categories have decreased month on month, the top three are Daily Necessities, Accessories & Packaging,Knitting & Weaving Products, decreased by 9.2 points, 7.92 points and 6.54 points, of which, the Shoes, Stationery & Office Supplies fell after increasing; and Daily Necessities, Accessories & Packaging, Apparel & Accessories, Hardware & Electrical Products decreased in the past two months.
     II. Analysis for the Composition of the Monthly Price Index
     The monthly price index of January 2018 amounted to 100.22 points, increasing slightly by 0.1% month on month. Among that, Market Order Price Index,Direct Transaction Price Index were increased by 0.3%,0.1%, Export Trade Price Index,Online Exchange Price Index were decreased by 0.15%,0.12%.
     
    Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, 8 of them have gone up. The monthly price indices of Personal Care, Daily Necessities and Suitcases & Bags have stated in the forefront, increased by 1%、0.91%、0.24% month on month. Among that, the monthly price indices of Personal Care, Suitcases & Bags, Shoes, Accessories & Packaging and Toys were increased from December and January; and Daily Necessities, Timepieces & Eyewear and Apparel & Accessories have rebound.
    The properity indexes of the 7 major categories have decreased month on month, the top three are Stationery & Office Supplies, Electronics & Electrical Appliances,Hardware & Electrical Products, decreased by 1.1 points, 0.87 points and 0.46 points, of which, the Arts & Crafts, Jewelry,Knitting & Weaving Products, fell after increasing; and Stationery & Office Supplies, Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Hardware & Electrical Products, Sports & Entertainment Products decreased in the past two months.
    III. Analysis for the Influencing Factors of Prosperity Index
    i. Holiday stimulation on the domestic consumption
    Influenced by the markets are closed during the Spring Festival in January, the court customers purchase strong appetite, some foreign hurry up order to complete shipment before the holiday in the factory, as a result, the general market transaction volume this month, of which,Hardware & Electrical Products, Toys and Timepieces & Eyewear sales increased ,the Middle East, Africa, South America and other regions customers purchasing actively,Construction & Decoration Hardware, Universal Accessories, Eyeglass Products & Accessories, Watches, Clocks,Educational Toy, Novelty Toys, Model Toys were decreased by 156.86 points, 155.68 points,106.4 points,93.58 points,86.44 points,76.77 points,68.56 points and 68.3 points.
    ii. Stable demands for the seasonal products
    As the temperature is getting lower and most of the places are snowy and rainy these days, sales of the seasonal warmth products are persistently good, especially the thermal underwear, cotton slippers, hand warmers and electric heaters, which have become the key purchasing points of the customers with high trading volumes. The prosperity indexes of the home appliances, underwear and slippers industries have increased by 90.34%, 44.29% and 40.88% from the prior month; as effected by the seasonal element, sales of the skin care and skin moisturizers, indoor fitness products and health care products are increasing and the prosperity indexes of cosmetics, health care supplies and fitness products industries have increased by 43.26%, 41.35% and 20.6% from the prior month.
    iii.Pre-festival consumption promotes wholesale and retail volumes
    As spring festival is incoming, the domestic consumption demands are very high. And various e-commerce platforms and supermarkets are promoting all kinds of festival products to take over the consumption market, of which, the daily vessels, home decoration lights, holiday supplies, hair products and various delicate packaging gifts are especially popular with the customers and have driven the trading volume of the related industries. The prosperity indexes of daily artworks, hair products, special artworks and cosmetics industries have increased by 153.7%, 153.2%, 105.96% and 26.51% from the prior month.
    IV. Future market forecast
    i. As the market is about to be closed, travelling merchants in the Mart are leaving successively and the overall market is in a slowdown. With the factories will have holidays successively, the industries such as jewelry, hardware and electrical materials & appliances, watches & glassware and toys are mainly dealing in spots & inventory processing and post-holiday orders accepting;
    ii. Goods for the Spring Festival are continuous in hot sales. The retail market in the Mart is likely to remain the peak sales in the short term. Products such as shoes and clothing, household daily necessities and festive supplies are in great domestic demand. Relevant goods related to Spring Festival shopping in the industries such as shoes, apparel and clothing, daily necessities and artware are in bullish momentum.
    iii.As the peak tourist season of Spring Festival approaching, people go out for trips and family visits frequently and there will be a travel peak in the country. Tourism products and leisure & recreational goods are in increasing demand. Domestic sales for replenishment in relevant industries such as sports and entertainment goods and bags & cases are in promising market.
    iv.Due to the concentrated year-end assessment and appraisal activities in enterprises, public institutions and schools in the end of the year, there is a significant increase in the demand of products such as office consumables, accounting supplies and reward supplies. There’s expected to be a small replenishment rise in the cultural and office supplies industry in the near term.