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  • MONTHLY PROSPERITY INDEX ANYLYSISI IN 2018/03

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2018-04-12
  • Increasing purchasers and coming of new products promoted replenishments.

    According to the monitor of “China•Yiwu Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of March 2018 was decreased slightly, down 4.51% month on month but up 2.18% year on year. While the monthly price index of March 2018 amounted to 99.95 points, down 0.27% month on month and down 0.15% year on year. After Spring Festival, the customers have returned to the market and begun to stock up actively, and the overall market has been driven by the coming of new products. The market popularity index, the trade turnover index, the trade volume index and the benefit index were all increased.
    I. Introduction of the Economic Indicators
    i. Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index

    The monthly prosperity index of March, 2018 was 1136.1 points, with a month on month range of 4.51%.The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices:
    1.Scale Index
    The scale index of March 2018 counted up to 885.24 points, with a month on month increase of 2.55% and year on year increase of 5.46%. Driven by the accelerated returning of foreign merchants and the coming of tourism peak season, the market popularity index amounted to 829.58 points with a month on month increase of 5.25%.After the spring festival, the replenishments of regular purchasers were actively and the orders placed before spring festival have completed. All the factors made the trade turnover index and the trade volume index increased, counted up to 877.8 points and 877.71 points with a month on month growth of 2.56% and 2.84% respectively.
    2.Benefit Index:
    The benefit index of March 2018 counted up to 1595.99 points. Due to the foreign trade of the whole market did not recover yet, the benefit index was decreased 11.59% compared with last month, but increased 1.67% year on year. In this month, the commodity’s turnover rate index, the average gross profit index and the fund’s turnover index were decreased by 12.8%, 16.03% and 10.21% respectively month on month.
    3.Confidence Index
    The confidence index of March 2018 amounted to 1010.68 points, increased by 0.08% month on month and decreased by 0.65% year on year. Returning of foreign merchants promoted foreign trade of the whole market,  market dealers have remained optimistic about future market.

    Among the monthly prosperity indices of 15 major categories, 6 of them have gone up. The monthly prosperity indices of jewelry, cases & bags and stationery & office supplies have stayed in forefront, increased by 8.8%, 4.72& and 0.86% respectively month on month. The monthly prosperity indices of cases & bags and jewelry have kept on rising from January. The monthly prosperity indices of stationery & office supplies, shoes, knitting & weaving products and daily necessities have rebound in March.
     The other 9 of them have decreased. The monthly prosperity indices of sports & entertainment products, electronics &electrical appliances and apparel & accessories have stayed in forefront, decreased by 19.39%, 15.34% and 12.53% respectively month on month. The monthly prosperity indices of arts & crafts, timepieces & eyewear, electronics &electrical appliances, skin care products, sports & entertainment products and toys fell after increasing. And the monthly prosperity indices of hardware & electrical products, accessories & packaging and apparel & accessories kept falling from January.
    ii. Analysis for the Composition of the Monthly Price Index
    The monthly price index of March 2018 amounted to 99.95 points, decreasing by 0.27% month on month and 0.15% year on year. Among that, the market order price index and the online exchange price index were rising, increasing by 0.09% and 0.1% respectively month on month. While the export trade price index and the direct transaction price index were both declined, decreasing by 0.02% and 0.28% respectively month on month.

    Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, 8 of them, such as Stationery & Office Supplies, Timepieces & Eyewear, Knitting & Weaving Products, Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Jewelry, Sports & Entertainment Products, Arts & Crafts, and Apparel & Accessories have gone up. The monthly price indices of Stationery & Office Supplies, Timepieces & Eyewear and Knitting & Weaving Products have stayed in the forefront, increased by 0.51%, 0.43% and 0.27% respectively month on month. Among that, the monthly price indices of Timepieces & Eyewear and Apparel & Accessories have kept on rising. While the monthly price indices of Jewelry, Knitting & Weaving Products, Sports & Entertainment Products, Arts & Crafts, Electronics & Electrical Appliances and Stationery & Office Supplies have stopped falling and risen in this month.
    Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, the other 7 of them have fallen, such as Personal Care, Suitcases & Bags, Shoes, Daily Necessities, Accessories & Packaging, Hardware & Electrical Products and Toys. The monthly price indices of Personal Care, Suitcases & Bags and Shoes have stayed in the forefront, decreased by 1.64%, 0.81% and 0.66% respectively month on month. The monthly price indices of Toys and Hardware & Electrical Products kept falling, while the monthly prosperity indices of Personal Care, Daily Necessities, Suitcases & Bags, Shoes and Accessories & Packaging have increased then decreased.
     
    II. Analysis for the Influencing Factors of Prosperity Index
    i.   New products in various industries promoted market sentiment.
    New products in the market come quickly since the market reopened after the Spring Festival, such as Knitting & Weaving Products, Daily Necessities, Shoes and Arts & Crafts. The variety expansion degree indices of these products were all increased, up 0.64 points, 13.18 points, 23.93 points and 1.51 points respectively month on month, and the market popularity indices were increased, up 35.14 points, 65.9 points, 94.45 points and 77.32 points. Among that, the monthly prosperity indices of seasonal products, such as Knitting & Weaving Products and Shoes were increased, up 7.14 points and 3.68 points.
    ii. The sales of products in season have been started.
    The temperature was rising, thus the spring and summer products appeared on the market successively. The sales of Cloth Shoes, Rain Boots, Beddings and Home Textiles were warming with frequent replenishment by customers, so the trade sellers became more confident. The monthly prosperity indices and confidence indices were increased, up 223.59 points, 19.56 points, 16.79 points, 7.04 points, 0.54 points, 2.09 points, 28.99 points and 19.96 points respectively month on month.
    iii. Tourism Products sold well.
    With the coming of spring tourist peak season, tourism products were in great demand. The transaction of Leisure & Tool VehiclesEar Jewelry, Bags and Tourism & Sports Shoes was outstanding. The monthly prosperity indices and the trade volume indices of these products were all increased, up 330.65 points, 290.89 points, 85.02 points, 32.41 points, 412.84 points, 306.89 points, 91.98 points and 8.44 points respectively month on month.
     
    III. Analysis for the Marketing Trends
    i.   As the positive factors increase, some industries are expected to warm up.
    Firstly, with the temperature going down, summer products will go into cyclist peak season. Sales of Caps, Hair Care Products, Cleaning Products and Small Home Appliances will sell well. Secondly, the coming of Russia FIFA World Cup stimulates the trade of football cultural products; meanwhile, the export sales of flags, football, scarves and inflatable refueling bar will have a big improvement. Thirdly, 2018 China (Yiwu) Glasses Sourcing Fair, 2018 China Yiwu Hardware & Electrical Appliances Trade Fair and The 13th China (Yiwu) cultural products fair to be held in April will increase popularity.
    ii.             Analysis for the Marketing Trends
    The monthly prosperity indices and price indices of Jewelry, Stationery & Office Supplies and Knitting & Weaving Products were all increased. Influenced by increasing number of customers from home and abroad after festival, the domestic and export sale of Jewelry, Stationery & Office Supplies and Knitting & Weaving Products are warming up gradually, and are expected to remain good.
    The monthly prosperity indices of Suitcases & Bags, Shoes and Daily Necessities were increase in different degrees, and the monthly price indices were decrease. As the product change according to the season is not over, the market focus on inventory selling recently and are expected to be better.
    The monthly prosperity indices of Arts & Crafts, Timepieces & Eyewear, Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Sports & Entertainment Products and Apparel & Accessories were decrease, while the monthly price indices of these were increase. Influenced by rising cost of production, purchasers view more, and industries will focus on structural adjustment later.
    The monthly prosperity indices and price indices of Personal Care, Toys, Hardware & Electrical Products, Accessories & Packaging were all decrease. With the end of products adjustment after market opening, the overall market is expected to rebound.